Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

Sukran Seker


Risk analysis is a systematic and widespread methodology to analyze and evaluate risks which are exposed in many working areas. One of the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods for risk assessment is Bow-Tie analysis which combines features of fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis to identify the top event; its causes and consequences (outcomes); and possible preventive and protective control measures or barriers. This study proposes an occupational risk assessment approach, which is known as Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. The aim is to evaluate critical risks and risky pharmaceutical work units and take safety precautions against accidents which caused by risky conditions. Thus, this methodology combines the concept of uncertainty which comes from different (Decision Maker) DM’s evaluations and the whole performance of the Bow-Tie analysis for hazard identification and risk assessment.  To apply and validate the proposed method, a case study is performed for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. Based on the computed risk score, which is calculated by multiplying probability ranking and impact ranking of criterion, the risks are prioritized and some measures are suggested for management to prevent accidents occur in the industry.


Risk analysis; Bow-Tie; fuzzy sets; pharmaceutical industry

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